FOR HEAVY INDUSTRY cement · steel · chemicals · paper · glass · aluminum

We make heavy industry's
net-zero plan
actually feasible.

Compass is a 84-person climate consultancy of ex-cement plant managers, electrochemists, and project-finance leads. We build abatement plans that survive the CapEx committee — not the press release.

Sites analyzed
408
Sector coverage
12
heavy industries
Abatement modeled
148.4 Mt
by 2035
Marginal abatement cost curve
Stratos Steel · 4 mills · 28 levers · 2025–2035
WORKING MODEL
All horizons By 2030 2030 – 2040 2040 – 2050 sort · $/tCO₂e ascending
$0 $80 $160 $240 -$80 -$160 Waste-heat capture -$148/t · 1.4 MtCO₂e Cogen retrofit H₂-DRI pilot $140/t · 4.4 MtCO₂e CCS · post-combust. $248/t · 8.2 MtCO₂e ready capex pre-commercial Cumulative tCO₂e abated · 28 levers
$1.4B opportunity below $80/tCO₂e · 14 levers
Phase-1 NPV +$284M IRR 12.4%
Engaged by 408 sites across cement, steel, chemicals, paper, glass & aluminum.
Stratos Steel Cinder Cement Halcyon Industrial BEACON CHEMICALS Pavilion Manufacturing Atrium Paper Northwind Glass Coast Aluminum Stratos Steel Cinder Cement Halcyon Industrial BEACON CHEMICALS Pavilion Manufacturing Atrium Paper Northwind Glass Coast Aluminum
SBTi · 1.5°C industrial guidance IEA NZE benchmark v2025 Mission Possible Partnership CBAM-modelled US 45Q · IRA-stack ready
SCENARIO PLANNER

Three pathways. One CapEx committee.

We model each pathway with engineering-grade detail (heat & mass balance, electricity demand, hydrogen offtake) and project-finance discipline (CapEx envelope, OpEx, IRR with policy stack).

  • Engineering, not "directional" estimates
  • Policy stack modeled per-jurisdiction
  • Live-link to your sites' SAP / OSI Pi
Pathway A
2030 · 2040 · 2050

Full electrification

Electric arc furnaces + 408 MW renewables PPA + cogen retirement.

CapEx
$1.4 B
OpEx Δ
−$48 M/yr
Abatement
−84%
IRR · stack
14.8%
policy stack · IRA 48E · CBAM offset
Pathway B · selected
BOARD-APPROVED

Hydrogen + CCS

H₂-DRI pilot + post-combustion CCS on legacy BF/BOF + green-hydrogen offtake.

CapEx
$2.4 B
OpEx Δ
+$28 M/yr
Abatement
−94%
IRR · stack
12.4%
policy stack · IRA 45V · 45Q · CBAM
Pathway C
2030 · 2040 · 2050

Hybrid · phased

EAF transition for 2 mills + retain 2 BF/BOF with CCS retrofit by 2034.

CapEx
$1.84 B
OpEx Δ
−$8 M/yr
Abatement
−68%
IRR · stack
13.2%
policy stack · IRA 45V · 45Q · 48E
Cumulative CO₂e · 3 pathways · 2025–2045
A · electrify B · H₂+CCS C · hybrid
BAU 2045 2025 2030 2035 2045
PRACTICE

Three things our clients say McKinsey can't do.

We're not a strategy house. We're an engineering and project-finance house that happens to do strategy.

Plant-floor engineering

Our analysts have run cement kilns, EAFs, and chlor-alkali plants. We do heat & mass balances on real process data — not curves pulled from a 2018 IEA report.

  • 28 chartered engineers on staff
  • SAP / OSI Pi / AspenTech integrations
  • Onsite at your facility for kickoff

Project-finance discipline

Three ex-Citi, ex-MUFG, ex-EIB partners. Every pathway includes a financeable structure — sustainability-linked debt, transition bonds, 45Q tax-equity stacks.

  • CapEx envelopes ±14% accuracy
  • Policy stack modeled jurisdiction-by-jurisdiction
  • Term-sheet language for SLLs and transition bonds

Implementation, not just decks

We stay through FEED, contractor selection, and first commissioning. 68% of our strategy engagements convert to a multi-year implementation retainer.

  • Embedded teams of 4–14 people on site
  • Contractor & EPC scoring rubrics
  • Commissioning support through performance test
METHODOLOGY

How we get from process data to a financeable plan.

Four phases. We never skip the engineering. We never skip the finance.

baseline · plant-level energy & emissions audit
lever library · 248 abatement levers across 12 sectors
policy stack · IRA · CBAM · EU ETS · UK CCA · 45Q
capex est. · AACE Class 4 (±14%) at strategy phase
review · independent engineer + project-finance partner
01

Plant audit & baseline (4–6 wk)

Onsite review of process flow, energy balance, and emissions sources. We pull from your OSI Pi historian and validate with stack tests.

02

Lever screening (4–6 wk)

From our library of 248 sector-specific abatement levers, we down-select the 28–48 that fit your process. Each gets a Class 4 CapEx, OpEx delta, and TRL assessment.

03

Scenario synthesis (4–8 wk)

Three pathways constructed and stress-tested against policy uncertainty (CBAM phase-in, IRA continuity, REE prices). Each delivered with engineering, finance, and risk read.

04

Board-ready package & FEED prep (4 wk)

Board memo + capital allocation request + FEED scope of work for the selected pathway. We sit through your board / IC and defend the model.

¹AACE Class 4 estimate ±14% · ²IEA NZE 2050 v2025 · ³SBTi 1.5°C industrial guidance · ⁴Mission Possible Partnership reference plans

408
Industrial sites analyzed
Cement · steel · chemicals · paper · glass · aluminum.
148.4 Mt
tCO₂e in abatement plans
Authored or co-authored by Compass through 2035.
$14.8 B
CapEx modeled
$4.4B currently in execution; $10.4B in committee.
12
Heavy industries covered
Steel · cement · ammonia · methanol · ethylene · paper · glass · aluminum · refining · pulp · fertilizer · ceramics.
CASE STUDY · STRATOS STEEL

Stratos found $1.4B of abatement under $80/tCO₂e — in 16 weeks.

A 4-mill North American steel operator with a 2050 net-zero commitment but no capital plan. Compass scoped 28 levers across the four sites, ranked them by $/tCO₂e, and built the three pathways that went to the Q3 board.

$1.4 B
opportunity < $80/t
$480 M
phase-1 approved Q3
16 wk
strategy to board memo
We had two prior decks from name-brand consultancies. Both were directionally correct and operationally useless. Compass walked into the kiln house, asked for the data historian, and showed up to the next meeting with numbers our process engineers couldn't poke holes in.
The thing that closed the board approval was the finance — they handed us a term-sheet outline for a transition bond, not a slide that said "structure financing."
IC
Ines Calderón
EVP Operations & Decarbonization · Stratos Steel · 4 mills · 14.4 Mt/yr
Read case study →
SECTOR COVERAGE

Specialist teams. Sector by sector.

We do not pretend that cement and chlor-alkali are the same problem. Each sector has a dedicated lead and a sector-specific lever library.

lever library · 248 levers · v2026.1
Steel
EAF · DRI · H₂-DRI · CCS
28 levers · TRL 4–9
Cement
Clinker substitution · oxy-fuel · CCS
22 levers · TRL 5–9
Chemicals
e-cracking · green H₂ · bio-feedstock
28 levers · TRL 4–8
Paper & pulp
Biomass · electrification · steam recovery
18 levers · TRL 6–9
Aluminum
Inert anodes · 100% renewables PPA
14 levers · TRL 5–9
Glass
Hybrid & all-electric furnaces
12 levers · TRL 6–8
Refining
CCS · H₂ co-firing · biofeed
18 levers · TRL 5–9
Fertilizer · NH₃
Green ammonia · electro-NH₃
14 levers · TRL 4–8
ENGAGEMENT MODEL

Three doors in. We staff for the work.

Fixed-fee scoping. Fixed-fee strategy. Retainer-based implementation. No hidden expenses, no "blended rate" surprises.

FIXED FEE USD · senior-team rate

Scoping

8 WEEKS

A focused diagnostic on a single site or sector — quick view of MACC, top 8 levers, and order-of-magnitude CapEx.

$148kflat fee
Scope this engagement
  • 1 site · 1 sector lead + 2 analysts
  • MACC v0 · ±28% CapEx
  • Top 8 levers with TRL + dependencies
  • Board-ready executive summary
MOST POPULAR

Strategy

12 – 20 WEEKS

Full pathway development — 3 scenarios, financeable structure, board-ready capital request.

$480k+flat fee, sized to scope
Scope this engagement
  • Multi-site · 1 partner + 6–10 staff
  • 3 pathways · AACE Class 4 CapEx (±14%)
  • Policy stack modeled per jurisdiction
  • Term-sheet outlines for SLL / transition bond
  • Board / IC defense alongside management

Implementation

RETAINER · 2 – 5 YRS

Embedded team through FEED, EPC selection, financing close, and first commissioning.

From $1.4M / yr
scales with capital envelope
Talk to our team
  • Embedded 4–14 person team
  • EPC scoring & contract negotiation support
  • Financing close — lead arranger relationships
  • Performance-test & commissioning oversight
FAQ

Questions a head of decarbonization actually asks before signing.

What's your sector specialization — do you handle cement, or only steel?

Twelve sectors with dedicated sector leads: steel, cement, ammonia, methanol, ethylene, paper & pulp, glass, aluminum, refining, fertilizer, ceramics, and ferro-alloys. The lever library has 248 entries across these sectors. We turn down engagements outside our coverage rather than learn on a client's clock.

How is your modeling different from McKinsey / BCG climate practices?

Two structural differences. First, our staffing is engineers and project-finance leads, not generalist consultants — every analyst has either run a process unit or closed a financing. Second, our deliverables include AACE Class 4 CapEx estimates (±14%) and term-sheet language, not "directional" estimates that need to be re-done at FEED. That's why 68% of our strategy engagements convert to multi-year implementation.

Do you have engineering capability for capital project scoping?

Yes. 28 chartered engineers on staff including process, mechanical, electrical, and chemical disciplines. Heat & mass balance work is in-house. For detailed engineering (FEED Class 3 and below) we partner with Worley, Fluor, and Jacobs and lead the contract structuring, but the engineering judgement and policy/finance integration stays with us.

How do you handle policy uncertainty (EU CBAM, US 45Q, IRA continuity)?

Each pathway is modeled under three policy scenarios — base (current rules through 2035), tightening (CBAM full implementation, IRA continuity), and rollback (45Q sunset, CBAM exemptions widened). We disclose lever IRR under all three. We don't hide policy exposure behind a base case. For levers that only pencil under a single policy assumption, that's explicit in the board memo.

Can you support transition finance structuring (SLLs, transition bonds)?

Yes — three of our partners came from project finance (Citi, MUFG, EIB) and structured roughly $4.4B of industrial transition financing between them. We don't act as arranger or distributor, but we co-author term sheets, model SPT (sustainability performance target) calibration, and sit through pricing discussions alongside your treasurer. We've supported 8 SLL and 4 transition-bond issuances since 2022.

Q3 capacity · 4 strategy engagements open

If the plan needs to survive your CapEx committee, let's build it like one.

Send a plant list. A partner will return a one-page diagnostic and a scoping memo within 14 days.